Mercer Pre-Season Top 25

Since it is that time of the year it is time to start looking ahead at the best 4 1/2 months of the year...football season, specifically, NCAA football season. This is usually about the time of year we begin to get so excited about the upcoming season that we cannot stand it so the perennial boredom is channeled through the prediction of how the season will turn out. The most common way this is do is by ranking either the conferences, an inside look at the team, or if you really want to start some conversation a Pre-Season Top 25. We are going to approach this with by ranking teams based on how we predict they will finish rather than how they may seem on paper going into the season. Also, something to remember, this is just a prediction and not by any means a set in stone "this is how it should go" poll. The top 18 or so were pretty easy but the last 7 or 8 get a little rough just because the teams in this group could lose 3, 4, or 5 game and drastically change their position. That being said here is the Official Mercer 2009 Pre-Season Top 25.

25. Oregon State – Yes the team that knocked off mighty USC from its throne last year. The game is at the Coliseum this year and I promise, it won’t be pretty. They do however have Jaquizz Rodgers returning as their RB and they can ride that gravy train to 3rd or 4th in the Pac-10, and good enough to sneak into the top 25

24. Arizona – Mike Stoops looks to build on last year’s success and put a competitive team out again this season. They, like Oregon State look to finish 3rd or 4th in the Pac-10 bringing them in at the 2nd to last spot in the top 25.

23. North Carolina – UNC surprise a lot of people last year with their wins over Miami, Uconn, GT and even their 2 heartbreaking losses at WV and VT. They have showed that they can compete with the big boys. They are a bit young on the offensive side so it may take a drubbing or two over Citadel and Uconn (not the same team as last year) before the real comp. starts week 3 against Georgia Tech.

22. LSU¬ – I had a tough time putting them here because they did not play well last year, and this years schedule will be even more difficult that last years (Ol’ Miss, Bama, and The Dawgs away, Florida in Baton Rouge) but being in the media darling SEC they should at least land in the top 25.

21. Kansas - I am predicting 2nd in the Big 12 North, only competing with Braski for the coveted spot, which guarantees an early December slaughter. Todd Reesing will will them to enough victories to be competitive but the Big 12 South games (OU, @UT, @Tech) do not look favorable.

20. Michigan State – I love watching this team, mostly because you never know what you are going to get from them. They could blow out Pitt at Pitt one week and lose against ND one week in a hurricane in the comeback game of the year. I love watching them beat the typical overrated Michigan, Ohio State (not this year), and Penn State but I also love a good “heartbreaking” loss to Minnesota (Halloween night outdoors in Minnesota) or Purdue. They should finish T-2nd or 3rd in Big 10.

19. South Florida – If this doesn’t show how bad the Big East is I don’t know what will. Seriously, the media will throw the 2nd place team in the Big East in this area for sure but why? This is the conference consisting of Uconn, WV, Pitt, Louisville Rutgers, Syracuse and Cincinnati. And they are a BCS conference why????

18. Boise State - a good team in a bad conference. They have tried to make up for their weak conference schedule with A (yes single) big non-conference game against Oregon. Even for a first year coach in his first game as a head coach can outmatch this Boise Team. Good luck and enjoy the Poinsettia Bowl again!

17. Nebraska – The Huskers get this spot because they should finish #1 in the weak (comparatively) Big 12 North. Games to watch will be week 3 @VT, week 6 against Texas Tech, and week 9 against OU.

16. Utah – Yes They have made the BCS twice, yes they beat a great Alabama team last year in the Sugar Bowl, but they lost a lot of great position players from last years team. They do have a returning lineman and some big names like…..ok yeah you get the picture but they will do well and lose probably only to TCU in Ft Worth (hopefully in attendance that game). Because of their recent success the pollsters will forgive the 1 loss more than they normally would a non-BCS score landing them at #16, a great finish for the Utes and the Mountain West.

15. California – The Golden Bears hope to compete for the Pac-10 Conference title but really they are competing for 2nd place. They have USC at home but since when did USC lose away to a legitimate opponent? Cal has some good talent (Jahvid Best, Syd’Quan Thompson) but they cannot match USC and will probably lose to Oregon in Autzen Stadium.

14. Texas Tech – Yes, the entire Mercer family are Texas Tech Homers but this is our belief of how the top 25 will end up. Honestly, week 3 in Austin probably won’t be pretty (as a friend said gerrymandering by the Texas State congress) and even though the last two home games have been favorable against OU, I doubt Bradford gets rocked like its November 2007 this year. Positives are the receiving corps, D-Line and RB (even though Batch is out for 3-6 weeks). Harrison Jeffers has been highly touted and will have a chance to strut his stuff and show he is tough enough right from the get-go. Potts is a great talent I am sure of that. His only uncertainty is the ability to come back when the chips are stacked against him (GH was a master of this). Hopefully all works out for the Red Raiders but the games @Nebraska and @Oklahoma State (If okie state wins, look for them to wind up around here) will be big.

13. South Florida - They are here strictly because in our minds they will win the Big East. Other than a weak schedule and a great recruiting base to pull from, not a lot to look forward to watching these guys.

12. Ohio State – Ohio State honestly will probably only lose to two teams this season, USC and Penn State. Other than that their schedule is a cakewalk and Prior will get plenty of coverage from Herbstreit that they will be talked about enough to get them this high. Personally they probably couldn’t hack it in the Big-12 or SEC but for the big -10 they are pretty dang good.

11. Alabama – Yes they are good, and yes, Saban is very good but the team this year…not as good as last year. First of all they lose their 4-year starting QB. I don’t care how much of a pampas idiot he was, JPW started for 4 years, he knew the system and players inside and out. Glenn Coffee is gone as well as a high touted Offensive Lineman. Bama will be good, they will be great but they will not win the SEC West.

10. Georgia – The Dawgs are another SEC power that will not win their division. The Dawgs did lose 2 great playmakers to the NFL 1st round however the cupboard is not bare and hey should be recharged and ready for another great season. Georgia fans should not consider a non-BCS game season a failure, just a product of not being the top Dawg (pun intended) in a great conference.

9. Oregon - They will finish #2 in the PAC-10. They even have the luxury of playing USC in Autzen. Even with Phil Knights billions of Dollars they can’t seem to put a team out on the field that is perennially more talented than the Central LA’s bunch. If only ugly jerseys accounted for something……

8. Mississippi – Yes the grade school trick to spell the states name was used. Jevan Snead is one talented dude. Even though he lost out to no-name (at the time) McCoy at texas, he has made a splash at Ol’ Miss. Houston Nutt used Oregon’s recruits to prove he can still win, and with many returners on both sides of the ball he is poised to have an even better season this year. We are going out on a limb here and predicting Ol’ Miss will win the SEC West. They proved they could beat Florida last year, who’s to say they can’t beat them again? Probably Urban Meyer who will humiliate them in Atlanta in December.

7. TCU - Yeah we can see them going undefeated. And even though we have a $60k beef with the school, they have a god football team and a great head coach. Should be an exciting year in Ft. Worth and hopefully we can catch a game or two….wearing neutral colors.

6. Penn State - The HD Spread will not be in full 1080p with the loss of their top two receivers Butler and Williams. They are returning two key pieces of the HD with QB Clark and RB Royster. This is the team to beat in the Big-10 but is it the team to beat overall…doubtful.

5. Oklahoma – Returning Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford leads this bunch back towards their gal of a National Championship. They have the talent, but will the schedule get to them? The game against UT in Early October will probably decide the Big 12 South, but will he wear and tear against Okie State, @Miami(fl) vs. BYU, @Nebraska, @Texas Tech and vs. texas prove to be too much, or will it help boost them past many teams with a weaker schedule?

4. Virginia Tech – This is the team that will win the ACC. The ACC has some great parity but not at the level of VT. VT also has the non-conference schedule to boost them past other foes with the same record. Look for them in the Orange Bowl in January.

3. Texas – We absolutely hate putting this bunch here but the schedule works out most favorably for them to win out or win the most in the most difficult division in the NCAA. Seriously 4 of the 6 teams could easily win most other divisions or even conferences in the FBC but there can only be one winner. The week 3 scheduling against Texas Tech in Austin was a stroke of genius for the Horns. They get to put out Heisman contender McCoy against Potts who will have a whopping two starts behind him. They also get a chance at revenge for a dropped int. and 2 missed tackles in Lubbock. They are out for blood and even though I hope they over exert themselves, I doubt they will be stupid enough to lose in week 3.

2. USC – Carroll has said this may be his most talented team ever and that is definitely believable. They might have a TRUE FRESHMAN start for them this year which is huge considering they can pull any level of talent from any area of the country. Seriously, Matt Barkley now has the #1 spot now that Corp is injured and they are both in front of veteran Mitch Mustain! Safety Taylor Mays will be a force to be reckoned with on the D side of the ball. USC should go undefeated barring any major upset thus putting them in the National Title Game in Pasadena.

1. Florida – Ok before you ask yourself “How cliché” just look at the facts. Heisman Trophy winner and team leader returning. 2 time National Championship winning coach, 11 of 11 returning starters on one awe inspiring defense. O so they lost Percy Harvin….so what they can reload, or work and out strategize anyone else in the country. They should go undefeated, with tough games being @LSU and vs. Georgia at the world’s largest cocktail party. Doubt they will lose either and then they should roll past Mississippi as a revenge/statement game in December.